RB Starts/Sits
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Now, on to the picks…
🔥 START: Aaron Jones (MIN) vs. Dolphins
With Jordan Mason on IR, Jones has taken firm control of the Vikings' backfield, and he gets the best RB matchup on the board.
Touch hog: He's holding a 58.4% touch share without Mason and handled 22 touches for 92 scrimmage yards in Week 3. Only Jordan Addison saw more targets.
Soft matchup: Miami gives up 30.3 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, third-most in the NFL, and grades as the softest RB matchup in this week's DVP numbers.
No threats behind him: Mason isn't eligible to return until Week 7, and Demond Claiborne was the only other Minnesota back to get a carry last week (three).
Jones has the job to himself and a defense that can't stop RBs, so start him with confidence.
❌ SIT: Javonte Williams (DAL) @ Texans
Williams is coming off his best game of the season, but don't chase last week's points into this matchup.
Brick wall: Houston allows the fewest fantasy points and the lowest EPA to running backs in the NFL. It has held Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, and Chase Brown under 12 PPR points each.
DVP agrees: The Texans rank as the toughest RB matchup
Shaky efficiency: Even in his 19-carry, 98-yard, one-touchdown game, seven of his carries went for two yards or less. He couldn’t get over 41 rushing yards in either of his first two games this season
His volume keeps him in the RB2 conversation, but if you have a comparable back in a better spot, this is the week to use him.
🔥 START: Braelon Allen (NYJ) @ Bears
With Breece Hall week-to-week with a quad injury and not expected to play, Allen moves into the lead role.
Already the guy: Allen took over for the Jets' final two drives after Hall went down in Week 3 and handled six touches. Isaiah Davis didn't touch the ball once.
Committee shrinks: Aaron Glenn's summer plan was a "three-headed monster" of Hall, Allen, and Davis. With Hall out, Allen is the clear lead, and Davis has played mostly special teams through three weeks.
Beatable defense: Chicago just gave up 164 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns to Jahmyr Gibbs, and it rates as a middle-of-the-pack RB matchup overall.
He sits on the RB2/RB3 border, but a lead back's volume makes him a strong flex play this week.
❌ SIT: Alvin Kamara (NO) vs. Falcons
Travis Etienne Jr.'s hamstring will cost him time, and that makes Kamara the Saints' likely starter. It also makes him an easy trap to fall into.
Elite run defense: Atlanta allows just 2.8 yards per carry and 10.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. That makes it the seventh-toughest RB matchup so far this season.
Empty touches: Kamara has run for 15 yards on nine carries in Week 2 and 36 yards on nine carries in Week 3. In Week 2 he averaged just 1.6 yards per touch and ran only seven routes.
Still a committee: Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson are both part of the backfield, and Miller scored a red-zone touchdown in Week 1.
At best he's a desperation flex, and the volume won't be worth much against this front.
🔥 START: Jeremiyah Love (ARI) @ Giants
Love took over Arizona's backfield in Week 3 and showed why he went so early in the draft.
Workhorse usage: He had a career-high 26 touches, out-snapped Tyler Allgeier 55-31, and out-touched him 26-6. That added up to 109 scrimmage yards, a touchdown, and 21.9 PPR points.
Friendly matchup: The Giants have allowed 13+ fantasy points to three different backs this season and rank among the 10 softest RB matchups.
Rare talent: He was the No. 3 overall pick. His 4.36-second 40 at 212 pounds produced a 117.3 speed score, the highest for a first-round RB since Saquon Barkley.
The path to full workhorse duty is wide open, so start Love as a high-end RB2 with room to grow.
❌ SIT: RB Ollie Gordon (MIA) @ Vikings
Yes, I told you to pick him up, and I stand by the value, but Gordon is a stash this week and should stay on your bench.
Toughest draw: Minnesota is one of the toughest RB matchups so far this season, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs.
Committee coming: Coach Jeff Hafley says every Miami back is "going to have their role,” so a healthy Jaylen Wright could take early-down work.
Struggling offense: Miami ranks 31st in points per game (12.0) and 26th in yards per game (290.7). Gordon managed just 41 yards on 17 carries even with every-down work in Week 3.
Keep him rostered for when the schedule softens, but don't expect usable production against this defense.
That's the list: three backs to start, three to sit, and one clear edge in every matchup.
-Joe
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