RB Starts/Sits
The backfield roles are starting to take shape. Consider this information when making lineup decisions in Week 3.
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Now, on to the picks…
🔥 START: Bhayshul Tuten vs. NE
The preseason worry was a messy committee in Jacksonville, but Tuten took over the backfield in Week 2, reinforcing the bull case for him.
Out-snapped Chris Rodriguez 30-to-13 in Week 2 and had more than twice as many carries, scoring a TD and clearing 60 rushing yards for the second straight game.
His explosiveness is showing up: he forced 7 missed tackles on 15 carries in Week 1, tied for the NFL lead, and another long run was wiped out by a penalty in Week 2.
He was the Jaguars' goal-line back as a rookie, turning 27 red-zone touches into 7 touchdowns.
New England has been the 6th-toughest RB matchup so far this year, and LeQuint Allen's third-down role is worth watching. Still, Tuten is getting lead-back volume, which makes him a top-24 play.
🚫 SIT: Travis Etienne vs. LV
The Saints paid Etienne like a workhorse, and I took the bait this summer, but Alvin Kamara's return has turned this backfield into a committee.
Etienne’s touch share fell to 18.5% in Week 2 while Kamara led the backfield at 25.9%, and CJ Donaldson is taking third-down snaps.
He has 109 scrimmage yards on 26 touches and no touchdowns through two games, including just 3.1 yards per carry in Week 2 behind a line missing tackle Kelvin Banks.
He had only two carries in the first half of Week 2 while Kamara handled 10 touches.
Etienne did out-snap Kamara 21-to-7 after halftime, and the Raiders have been the 10th-friendliest RB matchup so far. That's a reason to hold him, but not enough of a role to start him with confidence.
🔥 START: Derrick Henry @ DAL (Rio de Janeiro)
At 32, Henry is still what Baltimore's offense runs through, and Week 3 sets up as a smash spot.
Has 212 rushing yards and 4 total TDs through two games, and handled 24 of the backfield's 30 carries in Week 1.
Dallas has been the 7th-friendliest RB matchup so far this year, gave up 27.3 fantasy points to RBs in Week 1, and brings a heavily banged-up front seven to Brazil.
Ravens-Cowboys has the highest projected total of the week at 52.5 points.
He ranked 3rd in red-zone touches last season, and with Keaton Mitchell gone there's no one to take goal-line carries from him. Start him as an RB1.
🚫 SIT: Quinshon Judkins vs. CAR
Judkins has the workload and a soft matchup. The problem is what happens once he gets the ball.
He's averaging 2.2 yards per carry through two games (54 yards on 24 carries).
The Browns' rebuilt line has five new starters and was ranked 31st by ETR entering the year. Judkins also faced the league's highest rate of 8+ defenders in the box last season.
Deshaun Watson's offense isn't creating scoring chances. Cleveland struggled to reach the red zone in Week 1, and Judkins came up short on a couple of tries inside the 10 in Week 2.
Carolina has been the 2nd-friendliest RB matchup so far, so this is a risky sit. His volume (12 of 15 RB carries plus 5 catches in Week 2) gives him a PPR floor, but until the line holds up his ceiling is RB3 at best.
🔥 START: Jaylen Warren vs. CIN
Warren is Aaron Rodgers' favorite checkdown, and the Steelers' backfield could be his this week.
Rico Dowdle (toe) is day-to-day, and Warren took over the snaps once Dowdle got hurt, with 14 touches after Dowdle left in Week 2.
He has 10 targets through two games, including a 26-yard catch in Week 2. Pittsburgh ranked 2nd in RB targets last season.
Cincinnati has been the 8th-friendliest RB matchup so far this year.
Warren ranked 4th among RBs in yards per route run (1.81) last season. He's an RB2 if Dowdle sits and still a useful PPR FLEX if Dowdle plays.
🚫 SIT: Rhamondre Stevenson @ JAX
His longtime fumbling problem showed up again in Week 2 and cost him his hold on the Patriots' backfield.
A first-quarter fumble sent him to the bench, and TreVeyon Henderson out-snapped him 31-to-18 the rest of the way.
His route share dropped to 31% as Henderson took over more of the passing-down work.
Even as the unquestioned starter in Week 1, he managed only 2.8 yards per carry on 18 carries.
Jacksonville has been a middle-of-the-pack RB matchup so far, but a split backfield plus a coaching staff that pulls him after a fumble makes Stevenson a low-floor FLEX at best.
That’s the list. Make the tough calls easy by knowing the situations. Good luck in Week 3!
-Joe
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