Worst Picks
Avoid these players at their current ADPs... they won’t pay off.
Round 1: Ashton Jeanty (LV)
Elite volume couldn't save Jeanty’s rookie season from the worst offensive environment in football, and this year's schedule makes sure it stays that way.
He commanded an 84.3% opportunity share (1st in the NFL) as a rookie, yet still finished as just fantasy RB15 per game… volume was never the problem.
His efficiency numbers cratered to the bottom of the league (4.1 yards per touch, 52nd; 0.72 fantasy points per opportunity, 52nd), almost entirely because the Raiders finished dead last in total yards, rushing yards, and points scored in 2025.
Even with a new center, new coaching staff, and a rookie QB threat drawing defenses away from the box, Jeanty faces the single toughest strength of schedule for running backs in the entire NFL in 2026, and the toughest pass-defense slate too, which limits how much the passing game can help him.
The talent and touches are both there, but until the schedule says otherwise, this is a Round 1 price tag with a real ceiling problem.
Round 2: Drake London (ATL)
London's per-game numbers were elite, but he still missed a third of the season… and the questions haven't gone away.
He finished as the overall fantasy WR6 in points per game (16.8), but missed five games with hip and knee injuries, making availability the central concern in his profile every year.
The QB situation is the biggest wildcard entering 2026: Tua Tagovailoa signed a one-year deal, and Michael Penix Jr. is still on the roster, and London was notably better with Penix than with Cousins in prior seasons. So the jury’s out on how this will affect the production.
New HC Kevin Stefanski's offenses have historically been run-heavy, a potential headwind on target volume, and it's London's third different offensive coordinator in as many years… while Bijan Robinson's 100 targets in 2025 already put a soft ceiling on how much volume is left to share.
The efficiency profile screams alpha WR1, but between the injury history and the new-scheme uncertainty, this is a lot of risk to pay a Round 2 price for.
Round 3: Breece Hall (NYJ)
Hall racked up real workhorse volume, but the offense around him made sure very little of it turned into fantasy points… and the Jets don’t inspire much confidence despite the player additions.
Despite finishing with 1,065 rushing yards (15th) on 243 carries (11th), Hall ranked just 55th in fantasy points per opportunity (0.71)… a clear sign of just how dysfunctional the offense was around him.
Scoring chances were scarce: he ranked only 38th in red zone touches (22) and managed just five total touchdowns thanks to a "pop-gun" offense.
New head coach Aaron Glenn has signaled intent to run a "three-headed monster" committee with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, and new OC Frank Reich has historically favored a multiple-back approach… both trends that lower Hall's weekly floor even with his franchise tag security.
The volume and the contract say workhorse, but the touchdowns, the offense, and the coaching intentions all say committee. So proceed with caution at a Round 3 price.
Round 4: Jaylen Waddle (DEN)
Denver paid a premium to get Waddle, but between the injury history and the target competition waiting for him, that price tag looks steep.
The Broncos gave up a 2026 first-round pick (No. 30), a third, and a fourth to acquire him. It’s a real bet on Waddle as the team's primary playmaker.
He's "always gutting through something": Waddle missed Week 18 with rib issues and dealt with shoulder and calf problems throughout all of 2025.
QB Bo Nix is still recovering from his January ankle procedure, and Waddle is expected to challenge Courtland Sutton for the de facto No. 1 role rather than simply inheriting it, with Marvin Mims still in the mix as well.
The efficiency metrics (10th in Yards Per Route Run, 5th in Air Yard Share) and the zone-beating skill (he posted an 81.3% success rate against zone coverage, per Reception Perception) are legit, but the crowded target competition and injury risk make this a lot to bet on at a Round 4 price.
Round 5: TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
Henderson's rookie numbers look great on the surface, but the backfield hierarchy and the tape both say Stevenson is still 1A.
Henderson operates as the "lightning back" to Rhamondre Stevenson's "1A" role, and Stevenson remains under contract for 2026… the two-back approach isn't going anywhere.
A staggering 29.2% of Henderson's rookie production came in just two games where Stevenson was inactive, meaning his overall numbers are inflated relative to his actual role.
When it mattered most, the role shrank: Henderson averaged just 2.4 yards per carry in the postseason while Stevenson dominated the touches during New England's playoff run.
The big-play juice (10 breakaway runs, 5.1 yards per carry) is real, but as long as Stevenson is healthy and ahead of him in the pecking order, Henderson is being drafted at a high-end handcuff price despite Stevenson beating him in every efficiency metric last year.
That’s the list…avoid these guys in the early rounds of your draft.
-Joe