Picks to Avoid
Every round has traps. Here’s a look at some players who may not provide a good return on their early-round ADPs...
Round 1: Ashton Jeanty (LV)
Jeanty was a true workhorse as a rookie, but a Round 1 price tag assumes that workload comes with a winning formula… and the numbers say otherwise.
His efficiency was bottom-of-the-league across the board: 4.1 yards per touch (52nd) and just 0.72 fantasy points per opportunity (52nd), even with elite volume propping up the box score.
New HC Klint Kubiak has historically preferred two-back rotations, so the "bellcow" usage Jeanty leaned on in 2025 isn't guaranteed to carry over, despite all the bullish offseason chatter.
Even if the offense improves, the schedule doesn't: Jeanty faces the toughest RB slate in the entire NFL in 2026 (32nd easiest), putting a hard cap on his weekly ceiling.
Elite volume covered up elite inefficiency last year, so at Round 1 cost, you're betting that both the volume holds and the efficiency fixes itself, against the league's toughest schedule.
Round 2: Drake London (ATL)
London's per-game numbers were elite, but a Round 2 price assumes the version of him that played a full season… and that's not the version you've actually seen.
He missed 5 games with hip and knee injuries in 2025, and availability remains the central annual concern with this profile.
The QB situation is a total question mark: Kirk Cousins is gone, Tua Tagovailoa is on a one-year deal, and Michael Penix Jr. is still on the roster… and London was notably better with Penix than Cousins in prior seasons.
New HC Kevin Stefanski's offenses have been run-heavy, and Bijan Robinson's 100 targets in 2025 already place a soft ceiling on how much volume is left for London in that kind of system.
Talent isn't the question… health, the QB carousel, and a run-leaning scheme are, and that's a lot of uncertainty to pay Round 2 price for.
Round 3: Zay Flowers (BAL)
Flowers broke out as the overall fantasy WR7 last year, but a Round 3 cost assumes that ceiling keeps climbing… and the offense around him says it might not.
The Ravens ranked 27th in passing yards, meaning the overall volume pie for the passing game is already small no matter how big Flowers' slice is.
His first-read share ranked 18th (30%), suggesting he's not always Lamar Jackson's first look even within that limited passing attack.
The schedule is getting harder, not easier: Baltimore’s 2026 slate projects as the 7th-hardest schedule for WRs.
The target share and big games are real, but a run-funneled offense and a brutal schedule cap how much higher Flowers can realistically go from here. And up next, things get even murkier in the committee department…
Round 4: Jaylen Waddle (DEN)
Waddle landed in a much better situation for winning, but the Round 4 price assumes he walks in as the clear-cut WR1… and Denver hasn't handed him that job yet.
He's expected to challenge Courtland Sutton for the de facto No. 1 role, with Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant also in the mix for targets.
Primary QB Bo Nix is still recovering from a January ankle "clean-up" procedure, adding uncertainty to the exact passing environment Waddle is stepping into.
Injury history travels with him. He was "always gutting through something" in 2025, missing Week 18 with ribs after dealing with shoulder and calf issues throughout the year.
A change of scenery doesn't erase target competition, a QB coming off surgery, and a recurring injury history… that's a lot of "ifs" for a Round 4 price tag.
Round 5: TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
Henderson flashed real rookie talent, but Round 5 cost assumes he's the lead back in New England, and the Patriots have made it clear that's not the plan.
He remains the "lightning back" to Rhamondre Stevenson's "1A" role, and Stevenson is under contract for 2026, keeping the two-back approach intact.
When the games mattered most, his role shrank. He averaged just 2.4 yards per carry in the postseason while Stevenson handled the touches that decided games.
The schedule is taking a major step back, from the 2nd-easiest slate in 2025 to a projected 4th-hardest in 2026… one of the steepest scheduling downgrades for any backfield in the league.
Henderson is efficient when he gets the ball, but a committee role that shrinks in big moments and a much tougher schedule make Round 5 a steep price for a complementary piece.
That's the list: five names being drafted like sure things in the first five rounds, with five reasons the ADP might be running well ahead of the reality.
-Joe