Fantasy Breakouts
Here’s part 2 of the Top-10 Breakout countdown.
#5: Tyler Shough (QB - NO)
Shough's late-season surge was the most important thing that happened in New Orleans last year, and now, for the first time, he heads into a season as the established starter with a full offseason in Year 2 of Kellen Moore's system.
Elite late-season efficiency: Shough threw for 272, 308, and 333 yards in three straight games from Week 15 on… the version that locked up his 2026 starting job and put the Saints on notice.
A real arsenal, finally: The Saints used the 8th overall pick on WR Jordyn Tyson to pair alongside Chris Olave, and signed RB Travis Etienne Jr. (4 years, $52M) to run a two-back system with Kamara. Those are the biggest weapons upgrade of Shough's young career and a direct boost to play-action efficiency.
Mobility adds a real floor: Shough averaged 4.09 carries per game (19th among QBs) with three rushing touchdowns. Plus Reception Perception clocks him at an 80.7% success rate against zone and 78.9% on intermediate routes, elite markers for a developing passer.
The Saints scored just 306 points in 2025, and Shough only started half the season. A full year as the starter in a healthier, better-equipped offense makes 4,000 yards and 28+ TDs a legitimate ceiling, which is squarely in QB1 territory.
#4: Josh Downs (WR - IND)
Downs has quietly been one of the most efficient slot receivers in the NFL. Now, with Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Pittsburgh, there's nobody in Indianapolis standing between him and a full-time feature role.
Historically elite target rate: Despite operating in a low-volume passing attack, Downs was targeted on 29.4% of his routes in 2025, trailing only Puka Nacua and Malik Nabers in that metric league-wide.
Slot mastery and red zone presence: He ranked 6th in the NFL in total slot snaps (421) and generated 2.21 yards per route run, while also ranking 13th in the league in red zone targets (15) — a scoring floor that belies his smaller frame.
Contract-year motivation and a head start: Entering the final year of his rookie deal, Downs is already training in the Z/slot role while primary competition Alec Pierce remains sidelined, and Reception Perception already had Downs besting Pierce in target rate (22.2%) before Pierce signed his extension.
The opportunity is real, the efficiency is proven, and the incentive is enormous… if Downs can stay healthy in a contract year as the Colts' unquestioned WR1, a massive step forward is well within reach.
#3: Isaiah Likely (TE - NYG)
Likely spent four years in Baltimore playing behind Mark Andrews and battling early-season injuries. Now he's signed a three-year deal in New York, reunited with former Ravens HC John Harbaugh, and positioned as the clear TE1 in an offense built to maximize exactly what he does.
A historically favorable schedule jump: Giants tight ends project to face the 2nd-easiest TE schedule in 2026, a massive leap that alone makes Likely one of the most compelling TE breakouts of the offseason.
Elite separation in a wide-open role: Likely ranked 6th in target separation (2.27 yards), 13th in yards per target (8.3), and 14th in yards per reception (11.4) last season… all with Baltimore limiting his usage behind Andrews. Former competing TE Daniel Bellinger is now gone to Tennessee, leaving Likely as the unquestioned receiving weapon at the position.
Perfect fit for Jaxson Dart: The new Giants offensive staff projects Likely as the slot replacement for Wan'Dale Robinson… his ability to win on scramble drills is considered an elite fit for the second-year QB, with OC Matt Nagy and passing game coordinator Brian Callahan also on board to develop the connection.
The path to targets is the clearest it's ever been in Likely's career. When you combine that opportunity with elite efficiency numbers and the 2nd easiest projected schedule for tight ends, this is the kind of situation where a breakout doesn't just happen, it was built.
#2: Christian Watson (WR - GB)
Watson was a top-15 fantasy receiver on a per-game basis last season… and somehow, his ADP still doesn't reflect it, making him one of the most straightforward values on the board for 2026.
Historic per-game production: In just 10 games, Watson ranked 15th in fantasy points per game (13.2 PPG), finishing with 611 yards and 6 touchdowns. He ranked 4th in the NFL in yards per route run (2.65), yards per target (11.1), and yards per catch (17.5). That’s a true top-tier efficiency profile from every angle.
Expanded role and a massive contract: The departures of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks open up a larger target share heading into 2026, and Green Bay backed that belief with a four-year, $110.5M extension, signaling he's their unquestioned WR1 going forward.
The explosive ceiling is real and documented: Watson torched defenses with a 113-yard, 1-TD game in Week 17 and an 89-yard, 2-TD performance in Week 14, while ranking 3rd in the NFL in average depth of target (17.8 ADOT) as Green Bay's primary vertical threat.
The only thing standing between Watson and WR1 numbers is staying healthy (his injury history is the one genuine concern), but the talent, the role, and the contract all point to the same outcome: this is finally the year he plays a full season and cashes in.
#1: Omarion Hampton (RB - LAC)
Hampton produced RB1 numbers as a rookie (in just nine games), and now heads into 2026 as the unquestioned lead back for a Chargers offense with a new offensive coordinator, an upgraded offensive line, and a lighter schedule ahead.
Workhorse volume with elite receiving upside: Hampton commanded a 69.7% opportunity share (11th) in games played and caught 32 of 34 targets (94% catch rate), ranking 11th in target share among running backs… in his nine games, all while operating against the 6th-hardest schedule for the position.
Goal-line hammer in a real scoring offense: Hampton logged 28 red zone touches in only nine games, generating 15.1 fantasy points per game (12th overall)… a remarkable rate that reflects both his role and his efficiency (3.54 yards created per touch, 3.34 yards after contact per rush).
Everything around him just got better: Mike McDaniel replaces Greg Roman as offensive coordinator (a significant upgrade in scheme efficiency) while the offensive line adds veteran C Tyler Biadasz and expects tackles Slater and Alt to return healthy.
Hampton is the clearest path to a guaranteed RB1 in the 2026 draft. He’s a proven workhorse with a better team around him, and a full season ahead to make good on everything his rookie year promised.
So that’s the list. My favorite breakouts of the 2026 fantasy football season.
-Joe