Avoid These Busts
I’m not saying these guys are bad at football, I’m saying you don’t want to take on the risks at their current ADP.
RB: Bucky Irving (TB)
Irving enters 2026 as Tampa Bay's projected lead back and carries genuine upside, but a thicker injury résumé, a stiffer schedule, and a crowded backfield make his ADP a risky bet.
The competition is real: Tampa signed Kenneth Gainwell to a $14M deal to attack Irving's passing-down role, while Sean Tucker remains a goal-line vulture. That’s two high-leverage threats eating into the workload that drives his value.
The schedule gets harder: Irving's SOS flips from 10th easiest in 2025 to just 21st easiest projected in 2026, a meaningful downgrade for a back who averaged only 3.4 YPC late last season.
Injury volatility is the floor: Irving missed eight games in 2025 with foot and shoulder issues, and his overall RB34 finish came in only 10 active games — a thin sample on which to hinge a high draft pick.
The talent is undeniable, but until Irving proves he can stay healthy and hold off his backfield competition for a full season, his ADP demands too much faith.
WR: Jaylen Waddle (DEN)
Waddle's blockbuster Denver trade generated enormous buzz, but the landing spot is riddled with uncertainty that his ADP simply doesn't account for.
His quarterback’s health is a question mark: Bo Nix is recovering from a January ankle procedure and is merely "expected back for training camp", so there’s zero guarantee he's the same player, and Waddle's value is entirely tied to that answer.
The schedule becomes a gauntlet: Denver's projected SOS jumps to a projected 24th easiest (9th hardest) in 2026, a steep climb from 15th easiest last year, thanks to a punishing AFC West slate.
The target battle is unsettled: Waddle must challenge Courtland Sutton for the de facto WR1 role under first-year play-caller Davis Webb, an unproven OC promoted from QB coach… there's no established pecking order yet.
Waddle's efficiency metrics are legitimate, but drafters are paying for a clear role, a healthy QB, and a friendly schedule. And right now, none of those are guaranteed in Denver.
RB: Josh Jacobs (GB)
Jacobs's 14 touchdowns from 2025 look great on a highlight reel, but peel back the box score and you find a 28-year-old back whose underlying efficiency is quietly falling off a cliff.
The efficiency numbers are alarming: Jacobs averaged just 3.97 yards per carry (second-lowest of his last five seasons), ranked 96th among RBs in rushing yards over expected (-7), and finished 24th in fantasy points per opportunity (0.85), relying entirely on volume to produce.
The offensive line got worse: Green Bay lost key starters Elgton Jenkins and Rasheed Walker in the offseason, further threatening a unit that was already struggling late in 2025. That’s bad news for a back who needs creases to survive.
The schedule tightens: Jacobs's SOS shifts from 8th easiest in 2025 to 17th easiest in 2026, a more league-average draw that removes the soft-matchup cushion his volume-dependent style depends on.
When a 28-year-old back's touchdowns are propping up declining efficiency behind a diminished offensive line on a harder schedule, that's not a value, that's a trap.
QB: Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Hurts has every surface-level reason to be a top QB draft pick in 2026, but a trio of under-the-radar concerns make his current ADP hard to justify.
His rushing foundation is eroding: Hurts posted a career-low 421 rushing yards as a full-time starter in 2025, prompting analyst concern that heavy lower-body wear is beginning to limit the scramble ability that makes him a fantasy QB1 in the first place.
Weaponry is in flux: The team traded A.J. Brown while plugging in first-round rookie Makai Lemon… asking Hurts to sustain elite production while breaking in an unproven receiver is a real regression risk.
A total scheme overhaul adds uncertainty: New OC Sean Mannion installs a Shanahan/McVay-style system with more play-action and under-center sets — a philosophical shift that could reduce Hurts's designed run rate and take a full season to optimize.
A favorable schedule is real, but if you're drafting Hurts at his current price expecting the ceiling version, you're betting on three things breaking right that all have legitimate reasons not to.
RB: TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
Henderson's rookie efficiency was impressive, but drafters chasing that upside are overlooking a scheduling nightmare and a committee ceiling that caps his weekly floor.
The schedule is one of the league's worst flips: Henderson's SOS swings from 2nd easiest in 2025 all the way to 29th easiest (4th hardest) in 2026: one of the single biggest scheduling downgrades for any backfield in the sport.
Rhamondre Stevenson still owns this backfield: Henderson operates as the "lightning back" in a clear two-man committee, and his postseason usage told the real story. He averaged just 2.4 YPC in the playoffs while Stevenson dominated the meaningful touches.
Volume is not in his job description: Henderson averaged only 42 targets on the year in the passing game and played the complementary role even as a rookie, so there's no clear path to the workload needed to justify an RB2 draft price.
Henderson has RB1 upside if Stevenson gets hurt, but you shouldn't pay for injury luck, and against the 4th-hardest schedule in the league, even that ceiling shrinks considerably.
So that’s the list. Avoid these guys at or around their current ADPs. The value just isn’t there.
Tomorrow, I’ll write about navigating your fantasy draft when you have the first overall pick.
-Joe