WR Targets/Avoids
Same neighborhood on the board, very different outlooks. Here are four names I'm fading… and the receiver I'd rather roster instead at a similar price.
🚫 Avoid: Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX)
After a 1,200-yard rookie season, Thomas is coming off a rough Year 2 and now has to fight through a crowded receiving room to get his role back.
Regressed to just 707 yards and 3 total touchdowns in 2025, finishing as the overall fantasy WR42
Nearly invisible in scoring position: ranked 64th in red zone targets (7) with only two receiving touchdowns all season
Faces real target competition from Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and Travis Hunter, with Trevor Lawrence often looking to Washington and Meyers first
Until the Lawrence chemistry actually shows up on the field, Thomas is more speculative buy-low than a player worth building around. So instead…
🎯 Target: Courtland Sutton (DEN)
At a similar price point, Sutton offers something Thomas doesn't right now: a proven, high-volume role you can actually trust.
Finished as the overall WR13 in 2025: 74 catches, 1,017 yards, 7 touchdowns
Ranked 5th in the NFL in red zone targets (19) and 11th in total targets (124) as the primary big-bodied boundary threat for Bo Nix
Maintains real chemistry with a returning Bo Nix… the duo connected for two 100-yard games and 7 touchdowns last season
Even with Jaylen Waddle now in the building, Sutton's established target volume gives him a much steadier floor than Thomas's unresolved situation in Jacksonville.
🚫 Avoid: Xavier Worthy (KC)
The ceiling is real, but last year's swoon and some lingering technical questions make Worthy a name to fade at his current cost.
2025 production cratered to the overall WR59 while he played through a dislocated shoulder and ankle injuries, with Mahomes also missing time
Scored just 1 touchdown on 73 targets after finding the end zone 9 times as a rookie
Per Reception Perception, he struggles with physicality: just a 56.3% success rate vs. press coverage
The touchdown-regression case is tempting, but until he shows more polish against press coverage, there's real downside baked into that price. So instead…
🎯 Target: KC Concepcion (CLE)
Want rookie-WR upside without Worthy's baggage? Concepcion has a clearer runway to targets right out of the gate.
Some experts project he can emerge as the Browns' No. 1 WR as a rookie, predicting he leads Cleveland in both targets and receiving yards
Already taking full rotations with the No. 1 offensive group in offseason programs, with veteran Jerry Jeudy nursing a minicamp hamstring injury
Averaged over 7.0 yards after catch per reception and posted 919 yards with 9 touchdowns on 61 catches in his final college season
A clean path to volume plus an explosive after-the-catch skill set makes Concepcion the rookie receiver worth chasing this summer.
🚫 Avoid: Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
The talent has never been the question, but a brutal sophomore season and an unsettled quarterback room make Harrison tough to trust as a true WR1 right now.
Finished as the overall WR49 in 2025 (41 catches, 608 yards, 4 touchdowns) in a season wrecked by a concussion, appendicitis surgery, and a heel injury
Ranked 107th in separation, too often asked to win vertically (84th) instead of leaning on his much stronger horizontal route-running (16th)
Will catch passes from a mix of Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, or rookie Carson Beck following Kyler Murray's release
There's plenty of dynasty buy-low appeal here, but with the QB situation this murky, Harrison's redraft price doesn't match his current floor. So instead…
🎯 Target: Christian Watson (GB)
At a similar cost, Watson pairs proven big-play efficiency with an expanding role and a fresh long-term commitment from his own team.
Ranked 15th in the NFL in fantasy points per game (13.2) last season, totaling 611 yards and 6 touchdowns in just 10 games
Ranked 4th in the league in yards per route run (2.65), yards per target (11.1), and yards per catch (17.5)
Poised for a larger target share in 2026 after the departures of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, and just signed a 4-year, $110.5 million extension
Watson's per-target efficiency was already elite in a smaller role. Expand that role, and he's a clear step up from Harrison's foggy outlook in Arizona.
🚫 Avoid: Jameson Williams (DET)
Williams broke out in a big way last season, but a new-look coaching staff and a tight-end-heavy scheme could cap his ceiling in 2026.
New OC Drew Petzing leans on heavy "12 and 13" personnel groupings (tight-end centric), which could squeeze targets for vertical specialists like Williams
Production dropped noticeably with Sam LaPorta in the lineup: targets per game fell by 2.5 and receiving yards dropped from 80 to 52.5 when LaPorta was active
Still logged 10 drops in 2025 and remains a boom-or-bust asset prone to quiet outings
The big-play juice is real, but between the scheme shift and the LaPorta dependency, last year's WR12 finish may be closer to his ceiling than his floor. So instead…
🎯 Target: D.J. Moore (BUF)
Looking for a similarly priced receiver with a clearer path to targets? Moore's move to Buffalo checks that box.
Acquired by the Bills for a 2026 second-round pick, stepping into a high-volume passing attack as a primary target for Josh Allen
Ranked 19th in the NFL in fantasy points per target (2.0) in 2025 even during a down year in Chicago… a sign of real upside with better quarterback play
The Bills restructured his contract for 2026, freeing up $17.7 million in cap space and signaling how central he is to their Super Bowl window
A change of scenery to a much better quarterback and offense makes Moore a stronger target-share bet than Williams' crowded, tight-end-heavy attack in Detroit.
So that’s the list. When the clock is ticking on draft night and you’re forced to make a quick decision, consider these outlooks.
-Joe