RB Targets/Avoids
Same range on the board, very different risk profiles. Here are four backs I'm fading — and the runner I'd rather roster instead at a similar price.
🚫 Avoid: Ashton Jeanty (LV)
The bell-cow role and talent are obvious, but you're still paying a top-11 price for the league's toughest schedule and a historically bad efficiency floor.
Finished as the overall RB15 as a rookie despite an 84.3% opportunity share (1st in the NFL) — but his yards per touch (4.1) and fantasy points per opportunity (0.72) both ranked 52nd
Projected schedule for running backs drops to 32nd easiest in 2026… the toughest RB slate in the entire league, capping his ceiling even if the offense improves
New HC Klint Kubiak has historically preferred two-back rotations, so a true bell-cow role isn't guaranteed even with the coaching and O-line upgrades
Experts have flagged this as a real risk at a top-11 pick given the brutal schedule ahead, so there are better ways to spend that draft capital. So instead…
🎯 Target: Saquon Barkley (PHI)
At a similar range, Barkley offers proven elite volume plus a scheme change and a receiving-game bump that Jeanty can't match right now.
Ranked 4th in the NFL in opportunity share (80.3%) and 3rd in snap share (79.5%) even during a down statistical season
New OC Sean Mannion is installing a Shanahan/McVay-style zone scheme that has historically funneled heavy receiving volume to the lead back
A.J. Brown's trade to New England leaves a massive target-share vacancy in Philadelphia that could route, in part, to Barkley
Even coming off a "mortal" 2025, Barkley's bankable volume plus new receiving-game equity gives him a safer floor than Jeanty's brutal schedule and unproven role security.
🚫 Avoid: Aaron Jones (MIN)
Jones is back in Minnesota, but at age 32 he's stepping into a shared backfield coming off his worst statistical season.
Coming off a career-low 548 rushing yards and 3 total touchdowns, finishing as the overall fantasy RB41 in 2025
Entering a shared "1A/1B" role with Jordan Mason, who led the team in rushing yards last season
Experts project Jones for only 10–15 touches per game in 2026, serving as a "slashing" complement rather than the clear lead back
A restructured deal keeps him in Minnesota, but at his age and with a real committee in place, the touch ceiling here is limited. So instead…
🎯 Target: Blake Corum (LAR)
For a similar price, Corum brings real explosiveness and a legitimate path to a bigger role inside one of the league's best offensive environments.
Ranked 2nd in the NFL in Explosive Rating (122.9) and 6th in True Yards Per Carry (4.9) in his second season
Took a major statistical leap to 145 carries for 746 yards and 6 touchdowns, and was a "weekly threat for 10 touches," often reaching 12-15 depending on game script
Plays behind a Rams offense that ranked 1st in the NFL in both total yards (6,709) and points scored (518) in 2025
Corum is already a strong standalone flex, and is a potential league-winner if Kyren Williams misses time… real weekly upside that Jones' role doesn't offer.
🚫 Avoid: Bucky Irving (TB)
Irving is the presumptive lead back after Rachaad White's departure, but the offseason additions and his own efficiency crater make this a shakier bet than it looks.
Finished as the overall RB34 in 2025 after totaling just 588 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns across only 10 active games
Tampa Bay signed Kenneth Gainwell to a $14M deal (a far bigger commitment than Rachaad White's old $2M deal) specifically to handle passing-down work
Had zero carries inside the 5-yard line in 2025, with Sean Tucker owning that role, presenting a real hurdle to Irving's touchdown ceiling in what's shaping up as a three-way committee
Evan Silva of ETR is fading him after the sophomore falloff, the surgery, and the Gainwell signing — and the red-zone and passing-down competition here is hard to ignore. So instead…
🎯 Target: Travis Etienne (NO)
At a similar cost, Etienne brings a proven RB11 finish, the league's best schedule for running backs, and a contract that signals real team investment.
Signed a 4-year, $52 million deal with the Saints: the highest total contract value for a running back in NFL history
Rebounded with 1,399 yards from scrimmage and a career-high 13 total touchdowns, finishing as the overall RB11 in 2025
Projected schedule for running backs is 1st easiest for the second straight year, and the Saints just restructured Alvin Kamara's deal to cut his salary, signaling reduced competition for touches
Between the new money, the easiest schedule in football, and a shrinking Kamara role, Etienne looks like the safer bet compared to Irving's crowded, TD-starved committee.
🚫 Avoid: Breece Hall (NYJ)
Hall put up his best rushing season yet, but a new coaching staff's committee plan could cap his weekly ceiling in 2026.
Head coach Aaron Glenn's stated intention to use a three-back committee with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis significantly lowers Hall's weekly floor
Ranked just 38th in red zone touches (22) and 55th in fantasy points per opportunity (0.71), limiting him to only 5 total touchdowns in 2025
Projected schedule for running backs drops to 28th easiest (5th hardest) in 2026, a notably tougher slate than last year
Even with a fresh $14.29M franchise tag in hand, the committee talk and scoring-area limitations make Hall a riskier hold than his name value suggests. So instead…
🎯 Target: Javonte Williams (DAL)
For a similar price, Williams offers a genuine workhorse role, elite scoring usage, and almost no competition for touches.
Finished as the overall RB11 with 15.2 PPG in 2025, posting career highs of 1,201 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns
Ranked 5th in the NFL with 62 red zone touches, giving him a much higher weekly scoring floor than Hall
Faced minimal competition, as backup Malik Davis and rookie Jaydon Blue (a frequent healthy scratch) combined for very few touches, and just signed a three-year, $24 million extension to remain the Cowboys' cornerstone back
With a clean workload, elite red-zone volume, and a contract that locks him in, Williams gives you the workhorse role that Hall's crowded backfield can no longer promise.
That’s the list. Know which guy to pull the trigger on during your draft.
-Joe