Picks 7-12
Here’s how the second half of your fantasy draft should go… if your league is actually competitive.
Pick 7: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
St. Brown has posted three straight seasons of 1,263+ yards and double-digit touchdowns… one of the most dependable receivers in fantasy.
Led the NFL in first-read targets (128, 1st) and ranked 2nd in red zone target share (37%), pairing heavy volume with a dominant goal-line role.
Jared Goff is back, and St. Brown has been his go-to security blanket regardless of who's calling plays.
A third different offensive coordinator in three years (Drew Petzing) is a mild continuity concern, though Petzing's prior Arizona system favored the short, efficient routes St. Brown thrives on.
Between the target monopoly and a league-best touchdown role, St. Brown's floor is about as safe as it gets in this range.
Pick 8: Christian McCaffrey (SF)
McCaffrey was the overall fantasy RB1 in 2025, and in every healthy season since 2018 he's finished no worse than RB2.
Finished 1st among all backs in weighted opportunities, powered by 122 targets (1st) and 94 red zone touches (1st).
Rushing efficiency was actually a weak spot: negative rushing EPA and among the worst yards-over-expected marks for qualified backs… but the receiving game carried him anyway.
The real risk is workload: he led the NFL with 413 touches at age 29, and Kyle Shanahan has signaled a desire to lighten his load in 2026.
The receiving-game floor is about as safe as it gets at the position, but the touch count and injury history are why McCaffrey carries real bust risk inside that RB1 ceiling.
Pick 9: Justin Jefferson (MIN)
Jefferson's 2025 season was a mirage created by his quarterback situation… the underlying volume says he's still an elite target earner.
Target share held at an elite 29.7% (7th) even in a lost season, but he caught only 2 touchdowns on 130 targets: the clearest sign of how much J.J. McCarthy's play hurt him.
In five prior healthy seasons, Jefferson never finished outside the top 6 at wide receiver; last year's WR32 finish in points per game was a quarterback problem, not a Jefferson problem.
Minnesota signed Kyler Murray, who's widely expected to win the starting job over McCarthy — the single biggest swing factor in Jefferson's outlook.
A competent quarterback alone likely restores Jefferson to a top-5 receiver, making him one of the best bounce-back bets anywhere in the first round.
Pick 10: James Cook (BUF)
Cook led the NFL in rushing yards in 2025, putting together a true workhorse season inside Buffalo's high-powered offense.
Paced the league with 1,621 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per carry, while ranking 2nd in carries (307) and 5th in opportunity share (74.9%).
Coaches have expressed a desire to get him more involved in the passing game after a modest 33 receptions in 2025… It means real upside if that materializes.
The depth chart behind him (Ty Johnson, Ray Davis) isn't a threat to his role, and Buffalo enters the season as an AFC co-favorite, which should keep offensive volume high.
The one drag on his profile is schedule: his RB slate flips from 13th-easiest to 2nd-hardest in 2026… but a bellcow role in an explosive offense is still a strong foundation.
Pick 11: CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
Lamb's 2025 season looked underwhelming on the surface (WR17), but availability and touchdown luck, not talent, were the real culprits.
Missed three games with an ankle injury and exited another with a concussion, yet still finished top-20 in 8 of his 11 healthy games.
Efficiency stayed elite all year (8th in explosive rating) even as George Pickens (re-signed on the franchise tag) continued eating into his red zone role, capping him at just 3 touchdowns.
Dallas' passing offense remains a top-2 unit in the league, and Lamb's WR schedule gets dramatically easier, jumping from 31st-easiest to 9th-easiest in 2026.
Health is the swing skill here, but the target volume, offensive environment, and schedule upgrade all point toward a bounce-back if Lamb can stay on the field.
Pick 12: Saquon Barkley (PHI)
Barkley came back to earth in 2025 after his record-setting 2024, finishing as a still-productive but clearly "mortal" RB11.
Volume never wavered (4th in opportunity share — 80.3%), but efficiency did, dropping to 51st in true yards per carry with only three runs over 20 yards compared to 17 the year before.
New offensive coordinator Sean Mannion is installing a zone-blocking scheme and has a track record of using running backs heavily in the passing game, which could unlock more receiving work.
A.J. Brown's trade to New England opens up a significant target share in Philadelphia's passing attack… even a portion of that volume routing to Barkley would raise his ceiling.
The touch volume was never really in question. The real story in 2026 is whether a new scheme, a retooled offensive line, and a shift toward the passing game can restore the explosive efficiency that made him special in 2024.
So that’s the round. Anticipate what your league mates are going to do and dominate on draft night!
-Joe