Round 1 of Fantasy Drafts
The second half of Round 1 in competitive 12-man PPR leagues will look exactly like this.
Pick 7: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
The most reliable receiver in fantasy football has done it three years in a row, and his role in Detroit makes it very hard to see why Year 4 would be any different.
Elite target dependency, elite red zone role: St. Brown led the NFL in first-read targets (128) and ranked 2nd in red zone target share (37%) — Goff's security blanket and goal-line weapon all in one.
Floor is as high as any receiver in the game: Three straight seasons of 1,263+ yards and 10+ TDs. In 2025 he finished 3rd in target rate per route run (31.1%) and 3rd in fantasy points per route run (0.59).
New OC, familiar fit: Incoming coordinator Drew Petzing ran a short, efficient system in Arizona that maps cleanly onto St. Brown's slot-heavy profile, and Jared Goff's relationship with him isn't going anywhere regardless of who draws up the plays.
Three consecutive top-6 WR finishes don't happen by accident — ARSB is the kind of pick that quietly wins your week, every week.
Pick 8: Christian McCaffrey (SF)
The overall RB1 in 2025 is back, healthy, and still operating in the most CMC-friendly scheme in football. But the questions around him are real enough that he's sliding to Pick 8.
The workload is historic, and that's the problem: McCaffrey led the NFL with 413 touches at age 29, posting 1,179 rushing yards, 890 receiving yards, 17 TDs, and 25.3 fantasy points per game, but Shanahan has publicly signaled a desire to reduce his load entering Year 30.
The system is built around him, full stop: Kyle Shanahan returns for his 9th year as HC with no offensive coordinator change. CMC's receiving role (122 targets, 890 yards, 1st in RB receiving yards) is baked into the scheme, not dependent on a single play-caller.
Schedule gets easier, injury history doesn't: The 49ers' RB schedule improves from 30th easiest to 22nd easiest, a real positive — but McCaffrey has missed double-digit games in three of the last six seasons. He won Comeback Player of the Year in 2025 for a reason.
When CMC plays, he's the best fantasy player on the board. The only question has always been how long you get him.
Pick 9: CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
He only played 14 games, finished WR17, and scored just 3 touchdowns… and he's still worth a first-round pick because almost none of that was his fault.
George Pickens is the TD problem, and the TD problem continues: Lamb ranked 12th in red zone targets but scored only 3 TDs in 2025, directly a result of Pickens commanding the end zone. Pickens re-signed on the franchise tag for 2026, so this dynamic isn't going away.
The efficiency never wavered: Even in a down year, Lamb ranked 8th in yards per route run (2.46) and 9th in Explosive Rating. In 8 of 11 healthy games, he finished in the top-20 scorers for the week. The talent isn't the issue.
The schedule upgrade is one of the biggest in the league: Lamb's WR strength of schedule flips from 31st easiest in 2025 to 9th easiest projected in 2026, and he's doing it in an offense that ranked 2nd in total yards and 2nd in passing yards last season.
If Lamb stays healthy, the combination of elite efficiency, a top-2 passing offense, and a dramatically easier schedule makes him one of the most compelling bounce-back candidates in the first round.
Pick 10: James Cook (BUF)
The 2025 NFL rushing champion led the league in rushing yards, finished RB6 overall, and now gets to do it again inside a contender offense with coaches actively looking to use him more.
The ground game was elite, top to bottom: Cook led the NFL with 1,621 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per carry, ranked 6th in True Yards Per Carry (4.9), and finished 3rd in Explosive Rating — the definition of a workload-plus-efficiency RB1 profile.
His role is unquestioned, and it's about to expand: He handled 74.9% opportunity share, ranked 2nd in carries (307), and coaches have expressed a desire to "unleash" him more in the passing game after just 33 receptions in 2025. More targets from this offense could elevate his ceiling significantly.
The schedule is the one real flag: Cook's RB schedule drops from 13th easiest in 2025 to 31st easiest projected in 2026, one of the steepest difficulty climbs for any RB in the league. On an AFC co-favorite (+550 Super Bowl odds), expect volume to stay high even in tougher matchups.
Cook is the rare back who produces at an elite rate AND plays for a team that's going to be in meaningful games all season — the schedule concern is real, but it won't change his opportunity.
Pick 11: Ashton Jeanty (LV)
Jeanty finished as the overall fantasy RB15 as a rookie, running behind the worst offensive line in football, for the worst offense in football, in the toughest RB schedule in football. Through that lens, he’s good.
The talent metrics were absurd for a player in his situation: Despite yards per touch ranking 52nd and the Raiders finishing 32nd in rushing yards, Jeanty still ranked 4th in evaded tackles (89), 5th in Juke Rate (27.7%), and 7th in Yards Created (1,122) — he was making yards that simply did not exist.
The single biggest offseason move for any RB in this range: The Raiders signed Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum from Baltimore. An elite interior anchor transforms an historically bad run-blocking unit overnight — this alone is the difference between 975 rushing yards and a 1,300-yard season.
The entire offensive infrastructure is being rebuilt around him: New HC Klint Kubiak and OC Andrew Janocko have publicly committed to featuring Jeanty in the run and pass game. First-overall pick QB Fernando Mendoza forces defenses to respect the pass, reducing the stacked boxes that suffocated Jeanty all of 2025.
The floor risk is real (the Raiders face the toughest projected RB schedule in the NFL) but the upside of a bell-cow back with elite athleticism suddenly playing behind a legitimate offensive line is too good to pass on at Pick 11.
Pick 12: Justin Jefferson (MIN)
Jefferson finished WR26 in 2025… the same player who had never finished outside the top 6 in any healthy season of his career. One thing changed. It wasn't Jefferson.
The numbers prove the QB was the only problem: Jefferson pulled 130 targets (8th), a 29.7% target share (7th), and 1,369 air yards (13th) — and scored 2 touchdowns. Two. On 130 targets. The Vikings ranked 28th in total yards and 29th in passing yards with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback.
Kyler Murray changes everything: Murray is widely expected to win the starting job in Minnesota. A competent QB, let alone one of the league's more dynamic playmakers, combined with Kevin O'Connell's fantasy-friendly scheme built around Jefferson could restore him to a top-5 WR finish almost overnight.
Schedule and situation both point up: Jefferson's WR schedule was the easiest in the NFL in 2025 and still drops to just 7th easiest in 2026. The remaining favorable slate, paired with a likely dramatic offensive improvement, makes him the single highest-upside bounce-back candidate in the first round.
Jefferson at Pick 12 is a bet that last year's version of him (WR26 with a broken offense) was a complete aberration, not a trend. Every piece of data says it was.
So that’s the list. Now you know exactly how the first round of your drafts will go, and you can plan accordingly.
Tomorrow, I’ll tell you about my favorite WRs going in each of the first few rounds of drafts.
-Joe