QBs by Category
Here’s how I’m categorizing these 6 QBs this summer…
💥 Explosive Breakout: Caleb Williams (CHI)
Coming off a QB5 overall finish as a rookie, Williams is being talked about as a legitimate top-5 NFL quarterback and MVP candidate heading into year two of the Ben Johnson system.
He was a true workhorse in the passing game, ranking 5th in pass attempts (568) and 7th in passing yards (3,942) while the Bears leaned on him to carry the offense.
Williams wasn't afraid to push the ball downfield, finishing 2nd in the NFL in both deep ball attempts (82) and total air yards (4,901).
He backs it up with legs, too: 388 rushing yards and 3 rushing scores give him a rare rushing floor to go with the big-armed upside.
With a full offseason in Ben Johnson's system and a record-setting knack for late-game heroics (an NFL-record seven comeback wins in 2025), Williams has all the makings of the league's next breakout QB1.
💰 Best Draft Value: Patrick Mahomes (KC)
After a down year and a serious knee injury, Mahomes is quietly one of the biggest buy-low candidates at the position this summer.
Even in a "down" 2025, he still led the NFL in Money Throws (23) and ranked 6th in QBR (68.8), so the elite processing never left.
Before the injury, he was a rushing weapon in his own right, ranking 1st in scrambles per game (3.71) and 2nd in yards per carry (6.59) among high-volume rushers.
In just 14 games he still finished as the overall QB11 and 2nd in fantasy points per game — production most drafters seem to have forgotten about.
Add in Eric Bieniemy's return as OC to revamp an offense that ranked just 21st in points, and Mahomes looks like a screaming value at his current draft price.
💣 Bust: Jayden Daniels (WAS)
Daniels flashed rookie-year magic in 2024, but 2026 draft price is banking on a full recovery from a nightmare 2025 that never really got going.
He was derailed by three separate injuries: a knee sprain in Week 2, a hamstring strain in Week 7, and a dislocated elbow in Week 9 that eventually shut him down after Week 14.
The result: an overall QB34 finish, a far cry from the QB5 pace he set as a rookie.
His price now assumes a clean return to that 2024 form (3,568 passing yards, 891 rushing yards), but that's a lot of "ifs" for a player who couldn't stay on the field last season.
Until Daniels proves the injuries are truly behind him, drafting at a price that expects a full return to elite rookie form is a real risk.
😴 Sleeper: Tyler Shough (NO)
Shough enters 2026 as a confirmed starter after a strong finish to his rookie season, and he's being drafted like an afterthought.
His late-season surge is the headline: from Week 15 on, he threw for 272, 308, and 333 yards in three straight games, the version of Shough the Saints are clearly building around.
The weapons around him got a real upgrade: the Saints drafted WR Jordyn Tyson 8th overall to pair with Chris Olave, and signed Travis Etienne Jr. to team with Alvin Kamara in a legitimate two-back backfield.
Per Reception Perception charting, Shough graded out with an elite 80.7% success rate against zone coverage and a 78.9% success rate on intermediate throws… efficiency markers that don't show up in the box score.
With Kellen Moore back for year two, a full offseason as the starter, and a clearly upgraded supporting cast, Shough is a late-round QB2 with real QB1 upside if it clicks.
📉 Regression Alert: Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Stafford authored an MVP-caliber 2025, but a lot of what made it special looks tough to repeat.
He led the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and passing touchdowns (46), setting a career high in scores at age 38… exactly the kind of outlier season that tends to normalize.
He offers zero rushing floor, finishing 2025 with a grand total of one net rushing yard for the entire season, leaving no cushion if the passing efficiency dips.
At 38 years old and coming off a preseason back injury, 2026 may end up being his final season, adding some uncertainty to his workload and long-term outlook.
A career-high touchdown rate, his age, and a complete lack of rushing equity all point toward Stafford being a tough act to follow after his 2025 MVP campaign.
🏆 Best Overall: Josh Allen (BUF)
Allen enters 2026 as the unquestioned QB1, and the profile behind the ranking is about as complete as it gets.
He finished 2025 as the top overall fantasy player, leading all QBs in points per game (22.0) and fantasy points per dropback (0.75).
His legs remain a weapon unlike anyone else's at the position: 14 rushing touchdowns (1st in the NFL) and now the most career rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in NFL history (76).
The Bills upgraded his supporting cast by trading for WR DJ Moore, and Allen brings a durability record to match, riding the longest active consecutive-starts streak in the league at 128 games.
Between the historic rushing floor, the improved weapons, and a QB who's finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback for six straight years, Allen remains the clear top overall option at the position for 2026.
So that’s the list. How to think of these six QBs on draft day to give yourself an advantage over your entire league.
-Joe