Targets and Avoids
Here are some players to target or avoid at every fantasy position in 2026 drafts.
🎯 QB Target: Drake Maye (NE)
Drake Maye isn't sneaking up on anyone anymore… he's coming for the throne, and his price tag still hasn't fully caught up.
The stats say elite, full stop: Maye led the NFL in Yards Per Attempt (8.9), True Passer Rating (116.3), QBR (77.2), and Completion Rate (72.0%) in 2025, all while finishing 3rd in PPG at 21.2 and earning MVP runner-up honors.
His supporting cast is being rebuilt around him: New England released Stefon Diggs, signed Romeo Doubs to a 4-year, $80M deal, and made a blockbuster trade for A.J. Brown. They also used a first-round pick on OT Caleb Lomu and signed OG Alijah Vera-Tucker to fix a line that surrendered 47 sacks.
The dual-threat floor makes him special: 450 rushing yards and 4 TDs on the ground last year (6th among QBs in carries per game) gives Maye a scoring baseline that pure pocket passers simply can't match.
Maye is being drafted right around the same time as Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, but his ceiling is arguably higher than either of those guys. So this is a situation where you’re still drafting an advantage.
🚫 QB Avoid: Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Jalen Hurts enters 2026 with an easy projected QB SOS… but the warning signs piling up around him are impossible to ignore.
The rushing production that defines his fantasy ceiling is quietly eroding: Hurts posted a career-low 421 rushing yards in 2025, and analysts are raising serious questions about whether years of accumulating lower-body hits are starting to take a toll.
Everything around him is in flux: A new OC in Sean Mannion is installing a Shanahan/McVay-influenced scheme, A.J. Brown is widely expected to be traded, and a rookie in first-round pick Makai Lemon is now in the rotation…that's a lot of new for a quarterback entering a make-or-break contract year.
The late-season stretch was quietly concerning: Hurts missed Week 16 with a concussion, sat out Week 18, and closed with a 168-yard, 1-TD Wild Card performance… not the momentum a Top-7 QB ADP demands heading into the offseason.
Hurts remains a legitimate starter with real upside, but at his price, you're paying for the 2023 version of a player whose profile is quietly shifting beneath your feet.
🎯 RB Target: Kenneth Walker (KC)
Kenneth Walker didn't just change teams this offseason… he upgraded every single variable that matters for a running back's fantasy output.
He is now the unquestioned lead back in the most proven offensive system in football: Walker signed a 3-year, $45M deal ($28.7M guaranteed) to replace Isiah Pacheco, stepping into a Chiefs offense that OC Eric Bieniemy is retooling with more under-center gap scheme runs. It’s a style built for Walker's vision.
The efficiency profile is legitimate: Walker led the NFL in juke rate (31.7%) in 2025 and ranks 3rd all-time in breakaway runs (18) since 2022, making him the most electric open-field back in the league. He now gets to do that behind an elite interior offensive line after years of running behind bad Seattle fronts.
Kansas City was 31st in 15+ yard runs last season. Walker is the RB3 in explosive runs since 2022. That gap is about to close in a big way.
There is real durability risk here (he's missed time in all of his professional seasons), but the talent, role, and situation make Walker one of the clearest buy-in stories of the entire 2026 draft season.
🚫 RB Avoid: De’Von Achane (MIA)
De'Von Achane is the most explosive running back in football playing for a team in full-scale demolition mode, and that tension is exactly why his ADP is dangerous.
The team around him has been gutted: Mike McDaniel is fired, Tua is released, Tyreek Hill is gone, Jaylen Waddle was traded to Denver, and Malik Willis is the projected starting QB. Miami is targeting ~4.5 wins and carrying what may be an NFL-record $182M in dead cap… this is an intentional rebuild.
The schedule compounds the problem: Achane's RB SOS drops from 11th easiest in 2025 to 20th in 2026, and QB SOS drops from 6th easiest to 22nd… meaning Willis will face harder secondaries, further capping the entire offense around Achane.
He will absorb targets as the last weapon standing, but a pass-heavy scheme (new OC Bobby Slowik ran a pass-first system in Houston) on a 4-win team facing deficits all season is a ceiling-capper, not an accelerant.
Achane's individual talent is beyond reproach. He’s the most explosive back in the NFL by a wide margin… but talent doesn't overcome a roster that has been stripped to its studs, and the ADP (RB16) doesn't account for that nearly enough.
🎯 TE Target: Tucker Kraft (GB)
Tucker Kraft missed nine games last season, finished as the TE24, and still averaged 14.7 fantasy PPG, which was one of the most quietly elite per-game profiles at the position.
Before his Week 9 ACL tear, he was on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards… a threshold only a handful of tight ends reach in any given season. He's publicly stated he expects to be full go for Week 1 with no limitations.
The efficiency was legitimately elite: Kraft ranked 2nd among tight ends in Yards Per Route Run (2.56), 1st in yards after catch per reception (9.1), and 3rd in red zone target share (33.3%) with 6 touchdowns in just 8 games.
His role in Green Bay is cemented: He ran a 92% snap share in the 2025 season opener and is Jordan Love's established top target at the position. With a contract year ahead and extension talks looming, Kraft has every incentive to come out firing.
He is currently going at TE5 in PPR, but the role is real, and the upside is a top-5 tight end finish.
🚫 TE Avoid: Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
Dalton Kincaid flashed some of the most electric per-play numbers at the position in 2025, and yet, there are enough structural red flags here to justify significant caution at his price.
The efficiency was elite, but on a limited sample clouded by injury: Kincaid ranked 1st among all tight ends in both yards per route run (3.02) and yards per target (11.7) while playing the entire season on a torn PCL… meaning we genuinely don't know how much of that profile reflects ability vs. a defense-approved role he earned through reduced workload.
Chemistry with Josh Allen remains an open question: Only 69% of his 2024 targets were deemed catchable, a number that points to real miscommunication with Allen that has yet to be resolved heading into the new OC Pete Carmichael era.
The schedule gets meaningfully harder: Kincaid's TE SOS drops from 20th easiest in 2025 to 28th easiest in 2026, which is one of the steeper climbs at the position. That adds real friction to a profile that already needs everything to break right.
Kincaid's upside is legitimate and worth monitoring, but his ADP (TE10) prices in a healthy, high-usage breakout that requires too many things to go right at once.
🎯 WR Target: Malik Nabers (NYG)
Malik Nabers may be the sneaky highest-ceiling wide receiver in the 2026 fantasy draft, and he's falling to you because of an ACL recovery timeline that his own body language suggests is closer than the market believes.
The 2024 rookie numbers were historically dominant: 170 targets (2nd), a 34.9% target share (1st), a 46.6% Dominator Rating (1st), and 18.2 fantasy PPG (6th overall at WR) achieved behind some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL.
He is a proven separator at every level of coverage: Per Reception Perception, Nabers posted a 75.0% success rate vs. man coverage and a class-leading 81.8% success rate when double-teamed… elite numbers that prove his production isn't scheme-dependent.
The situation around him is quietly improving: John Harbaugh is the new HC, Matt Nagy takes over as OC, Wan'Dale Robinson departed, and Jaxson Dart enters Year 2. Nabers' alpha status is completely unchallenged. The new additions Darnell Mooney and Calvin Austin III are depth pieces, not threats.
At 22 years old with one of the most dominant target profiles in NFL rookie history, Nabers at WR10 ADP is the kind of discount that wins leagues when it hits. And his favorable schedule (6th easiest for WRs in 2026) means the opportunities will be there.
🚫 WR Avoid: Zay Flowers (BAL)
Zay Flowers broke out in 2025, and the surface-level stat line is going to lure a lot of managers into overdrafting him in 2026.
The Ravens remain one of the lowest-volume passing offenses in football: Baltimore ranked 27th in passing yards in 2025, and Flowers ranked 18th in first-read share (30%), confirming that even as the WR1, there is a hard ceiling on how many quality targets are available in this offense.
The schedule projects to stay brutal: After playing the 28th-easiest WR schedule in 2025, Flowers draws the 26th-easiest projected in 2026. A slight improvement, but still one of the toughest paths in the league for a receiver trying to sustain elite production.
The secondary weapons departing (Isaiah Likely, Keaton Mitchell) are a mixed signal: Yes, it thins the competition, but those departures also make Baltimore easier to game-plan against, and Flowers' 2025 target share of 29.1% may not expand as dramatically as his current ADP implies.
Flowers is a legitimate WR1 talent with real Lamar Jackson chemistry. That 47.4% target share in Week 1 proves it. But in a run-first offense facing hard defenses all year, he's being priced like a receiver in a scheme that simply doesn't exist in Baltimore.
So that’s the list. Guys I’m either targeting or avoiding in my drafts this summer.
-Joe