Avoids/Targets
Draft season is about leverage. It’s knowing where the market is wrong. Here are four positions where the name everyone wants isn't the safest pick, in two minutes or less.
🚫 RB AVOID: Bucky Irving (TB)
Irving still holds the "starter" label in Tampa, but the touches that actually matter are being carved away from him.
He had zero carries inside the 5-yard line in 2025… that role belonged to Sean Tucker
Tampa Bay handed Kenneth Gainwell a $14M contract, dramatically bigger than the $2M deal Rachaad White got in Washington, signaling the team views Gainwell as a real passing-down piece, not just depth
Head coach Todd Bowles has already confirmed a 1A/1B committee with Gainwell as the 1B, and Gainwell is reportedly excelling as a receiver out of the backfield in the new scheme
Irving keeps the "lead back" title, but between a goal-line thief and a well-paid passing-down partner, there isn't much premium touch volume left to fight for.
🎯 RB TARGET: Cam Skattebo (NYG)
Skattebo was one of the most efficient backs in football before a Week 8 ankle injury ended his rookie year early, and the offense is now being built around him.
New HC John Harbaugh and OC Matt Nagy have already signaled they expect him to be a true "workhorse" back in 2026
He posted an 80% share of backfield touches inside the 5-yard line when healthy, plus 32 targets across just 8 games. That’s legitimate three-down, dual-threat usage
He flashed the ceiling in Week 4 with 27 total touches on a 58.8% opportunity share, and his goal-line role looks protected. Greg Roman-coached staffs have historically limited mobile QBs' short-yardage work, which should keep Jaxson Dart out of the scoring-down mix
If the ankle checks out in camp, and early signs (running routes at minicamp, no PUP concerns) say it will, this is a workhorse profile with real receiving equity attached.
🚫 QB AVOID: Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Hurts is a proven QB1, but three separate red flags are stacking up at once heading into 2026.
His rushing production hit a career low of 421 yards as a full-time starter, raising questions about the toll of his running style
The team traded away A.J. Brown to New England, leaving DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, and rookie Makai Lemon to fill the void in the passing game, along with free agent Dontayvion Wicks.
He's entering the final year of fully guaranteed money on his deal while adjusting to a brand-new offensive coordinator (Sean Mannion) installing an unproven scheme
A change at OC could eventually help, but pairing new-scheme uncertainty with a thinner receiving room and a career-low rushing floor is a lot of moving parts to bet on early.
🎯 QB TARGET: Joe Burrow (CIN)
Injuries wrecked Burrow's 2025 on paper, but the tape from when he actually played says something completely different.
Once he returned from a torn-ligament toe injury in Week 13, he averaged 270 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game over his final six appearances
He's one of only two QBs averaging 35+ pass attempts per game over the last three seasons, throwing to the league's top pass-catching duo
Cincinnati's defense ranked 31st in yards allowed and 32nd against the run in 2025, which should keep forcing pass-heavy, shootout-style game scripts all season
Health is the only variable: the volume, weapons, and game-script are all already in place for a QB1 overall season.
Stick around. The tight end pivot below might be the sharpest swap in this whole email.
🚫 TE AVOID: Kyle Pitts (ATL)
Pitts is a legitimate talent, but the role and the price tag are working against each other.
He ranked just 15th among TEs in red zone targets (11) despite scoring 5 touchdowns, a sign his scoring floor isn't nearly as secure as his overall usage suggests
His monster ceiling games only show up when Drake London is out of the lineup… his one 33% target-share, 45.6-point outburst came in a game London missed
With London healthy, Pitts is projected as the clear No. 2 target in Atlanta's passing game, not the alpha
He's coming off a career-best, TE2 finish, but that's also the exact production his current price already assumes, with limited standalone room to grow behind London.
🎯 TE TARGET: Harold Fannin (CLE)
Fannin didn't just have a good rookie year, he already won the TE1 job outright before entering Year 2.
David Njoku's departure in free agency cements Fannin as the undisputed No. 1 tight end, after Fannin had already pushed Njoku out of his role during the second half of his rookie season
His target rate of 25.5% (targets per route run) ranked 2nd among all TEs, proof he was the clear top option any time he was on the field
He finished as the fantasy TE6 overall at just 21 years old, and new HC Todd Monken is overhauling a conservative offense that ranked 31st in passing yards into a more explosive, rookie-friendly system
With the TE competition gone and a more aggressive offense being installed around him, the Year 2 breakout math is straightforward.
🚫 WR AVOID: Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
The talent shows up in the data, but everything around him is still an open question.
2025 was a lost season: WR49 overall with just 41 catches for 608 yards across an injury-plagued 12 games
He ranked 107th in separation, frequently forced to win vertically (84th) instead of horizontally (16th)… a scheme mismatch with his actual strengths
With Kyler Murray released, he'll now be catching passes from some combination of Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, or rookie Carson Beck, an unresolved quarterback room
The upside is real: Reception Perception has him winning at a 74.8% success rate versus man coverage and 78.5% versus zone… but until the Cardinals settle on a passer, the price is ahead of the certainty.
🎯 WR TARGET: Mike Evans (SF)
Evans is walking into the best receiver situation of his career at a moment when the price should still reflect his down 2025.
He signed a 3-year, $60.4M deal to join the 49ers, choosing San Francisco for what he called the best shot at a second Super Bowl ring
He steps into Kyle Shanahan's system as the primary WR1, replacing Brandon Aiyuk as the offense's most productive outside threat
Even in an injury-shortened 2025, he still ranked 8th in the NFL in targets per route run (27.6%), and at 6-5, 231 lbs, he profiles as a red-zone weapon for an offense that scored 437 points (10th) last season
One man’s unfortunate news is another’s boost: Ricky Pearsall is out for the season, meaning the team’s focus will have to shift to the other receivers.
New scheme, clear target hierarchy, and a coach with a track record of maximizing X-receivers. So this is a buy-low before the market catches up.
That's the list. Four positions, four swaps, same effort, sharper roster. As promised, in two minutes or less.
-Joe