Overrated Players
I’m not saying these guys are bad fantasy picks… I’m just saying they might not pay off on their current ADPs.
TE: Trey McBride (ARI)
McBride was historically dominant in 2025, but drafting him as a top-25 overall pick may be paying for a peak that comes with real regression risk baked in.
Run-heavy pivot: The Cardinals drafted RB Jeremiyah Love 3rd overall and signed Tyler Allgeier, signaling a clear organizational shift toward a more balanced, ground-based offense that will eat into passing volume and threaten McBride's record-setting 169-target pace.
Brissett is a bridge, not a guarantee: McBride's explosion was directly tied to Jacoby Brissett (97 catches, 964 yards, and 10 TDs in Brissett's 12 starts), but the Cardinals also used a third-round pick on QB Carson Beck, meaning that bridge could shorten faster than expected mid-season.
Projecting a 3-4 win team: Arizona is widely projected as a rebuilding squad, and while trailing offenses can inflate volume, a dysfunctional overall environment introduces significant game-script volatility on a week-to-week basis.
McBride is a generational talent at his position, but the first tight end off the board… ahead of skill-position players with clearer paths to a top-five offensive unit… is a luxury price for a volatile situation.
RB: Breece Hall (NYJ)
Hall is a legitimate dual-threat talent locked in as one of the Jets' featured weapons… but his ADP as a third-round pick asks you to pay for an offense that has given fantasy managers almost nothing in return.
Historically brutal efficiency context: Hall ranked just 55th in fantasy points per opportunity (0.71) in 2025, a direct result of operating behind a dysfunctional offensive unit that finished 32nd in passing and 29th in total yards… and his schedule gets significantly harder in 2026, dropping from 5th easiest to 28th easiest for the position.
Red zone drought: Despite the workload, Hall ranked just 38th in red zone touches and scored only 5 total touchdowns, so the scoring volume simply isn't there in a "pop-gun" offense, and the new OC Frank Reich has historically favored a multi-back approach that keeps a ceiling on any single player's TD share.
Rebuilding offense, renewed hype: Geno Smith and a new offensive coordinator are reasonable upgrades from last season's disaster, but the market is pricing Hall as though the Jets have already fixed an offense that's been one of the worst in football… that's a leap of faith, not a lock.
Hall's big-play ability and dual-threat value are real, but you're essentially being asked to buy the Jets' bounce-back narrative at a premium against a significantly tougher schedule and with a TD ceiling that's never matched the volume.
WR: Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX)
The "post-hype sleeper" narrative around Thomas is compelling on the surface, but the case for a major 2026 rebound rests almost entirely on things that haven't been proven, and the headwinds are real.
Target competition is a genuine threat: Parker Washington broke out last season and now commands Lawrence's trust in the short-to-middle game, Jakobi Meyers remains in the mix, and Travis Hunter adds a two-way wildcard to the equation. So a clean target share for Thomas is far from guaranteed, even if his chemistry with Lawrence improves.
The 2025 regression wasn't fluky: Thomas slid into an exclusive deep-threat role (14.5 aDOT, 7th) that caused his catch rate to fall near 50%, he was nearly invisible in the red zone (64th in red zone targets, just 2 receiving TDs), and coaching staff noted he "shied away from contact"… these aren't small issues to paper over with an offseason chemistry narrative.
Durability is a secondary concern: An ankle injury cost him three games and a wrist issue impacted early-season efficiency in 2025… for a player whose value depends entirely on recapturing that 1,200-yard rookie form, missed time is a killer to the weekly floor managers are paying for.
If the Lawrence-Thomas connection is genuinely fixed, there's legitimate upside at this price. But you're being asked to pay rebound rates for a player who has yet to solve the underlying issues, in a crowded room that won't wait for him to figure it out.
QB: Jayden Daniels (WAS)
Daniels was the fantasy QB5 in his rookie year and the numbers suggest he has the tools to get back there… but his 2025 season was a cautionary tale, not a blip, and the market hasn't fully discounted the risk.
Injury history is alarming, not minor: In 2025 alone, Daniels suffered a knee sprain (Week 2), a hamstring strain (Week 7), and a dislocated elbow (Week 9). So he missed enough time to finish as the overall QB34 on the season at just 16.8 PPG, which was a staggering drop from his 21.5 PPG rookie campaign.
His value is married to his legs: Daniels' fantasy ceiling runs through his rushing (he led all QBs in carries per game (8.29) and finished 1st in escape rate), but that same rushing style is precisely what made him so injury-prone in 2025; a more conservative approach reduces the injury risk but also deflates the floor that makes him worth the price.
Projection is based on his 2024 ceiling, not his 2025 reality: The market is pricing Daniels as though the 2024 Jayden Daniels (3,568 passing yards and 891 rushing yards) is the base case; in fact, his 2025 showed clearly that staying on the field is the biggest obstacle between his ceiling and your roster.
The talent is undeniable, and if Daniels plays all 17 games, the QB5 projection looks reasonable, but drafting him in this range means accepting real injury risk as the single-biggest variable, and 2025 proved that variable can vaporize an entire season in one bad week.
RB: TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
Henderson's rookie efficiency numbers were legitimately impressive, but the structure of his role in New England (and a strength of schedule that increases sharply in difficulty), make his fifth-round price a bit of an overpay.
He's the 1B, and the 1A isn't going anywhere: Henderson operates as the "lightning back" in a committee with Rhamondre Stevenson, who remains under contract for 2026, and it was Stevenson who dominated the touches when they mattered most, as Henderson averaged just 2.4 YPC and was largely phased out during New England's Super Bowl run.
Schedule downgrade is severe: Henderson benefited from the 2nd easiest schedule for the position in 2025… that number flips to 29th easiest (4th hardest) in 2026, representing one of the most dramatic scheduling downgrades for any backfield in the league entering this season.
Boom-bust volatility is built into the role: Henderson's 14th-ranked fantasy points per opportunity (0.93) looks great in a vacuum, but his usage is dictated by game script, opponent, and matchup in a strict committee, making him a highly unpredictable weekly starter despite the efficiency markers.
Henderson's RB1 ceiling is real. But only if Stevenson misses significant time; paying mid-third-round prices for a boom-bust committee back facing the fourth-hardest schedule at his position is a bet that asks you to win a coin flip before he's even worth the roster spot.
So that’s the list. These guys could very well help you out this season… just make sure you aren’t passing up on better options in the draft zone.
-Joe