Week 1 Studs/Duds
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Now, on to the picks…
🔥 Stud: Caleb Williams (QB - CHI)
Williams didn't just win his opener; he looked like the superstar breakout fantasy players pointed to all offseason.
Went 21-of-29 for 269 yards and 2 TDs through the air, then added 10 carries for 65 yards and 2 more scores on the ground… including an untouched 29-yard house call
He was drafted largely for his prospective rushing floor after 388 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs all of 2025… he already has two scores on the ground in Week 1 alone
Chicago's decision to retain Ben Johnson and promote Press Taylor to OC was built for exactly this kind of Year 3 leap, and Williams' intermediate passing (15% over his expected completion rate) showed the fixes are sticking
The rushing upside was always the safety net… now the passing efficiency is starting to show up too. Full-go in all lineups against Minnesota next week
📉 Dud: Daniel Jones (QB - IND)
A promising start unraveled fast, and the road doesn't get easier from here…
Finished 19-of-31 for 166 yards, 1 TD, and a costly interception, baited by Ravens LB Roquan Smith on Indianapolis' second possession
After a hot opening drive (5-of-7 for 59 yards), Jones mustered just 29 passing yards the rest of the first half
The biggest flag this offseason was Jones' Achilles rehab affecting his rushing upside this season… a real concern given how much of his 2025 ceiling came from his legs
Next week's trip to Kansas City is a significantly tougher test. Treat Jones as no more than a low-end QB2 until the mobility and rhythm both show up.
🔥 Stud: David Montgomery (RB - HOU)
The presumed Texans RB1 didn't waste any time validating the offseason trade.
Racked up 20 carries for 60 yards and 2 rushing TDs, then added a third score on his only target of the day
Houston's backfield had a clean runway, and that's exactly how it played out. Montgomery was clearly the lead back even while getting narrowly out-snapped by Woody Marks in two-minute situations
His 2026 outlook has him as a "high-floor RB2" with bell-cow potential on a contender… three total touchdowns is about as strong a floor as it gets
He had to grind for it (39 of his 60 yards came after contact), but the touchdown equity is exactly what the profile promised. Locked in as an RB2 against Cincinnati next week.
📉 Dud: Rico Dowdle (RB - PIT)
The big free-agent addition was supposed to seize the backfield. Instead, it looked like a real committee.
Managed just 8 carries for 15 yards and 2 catches for 6 yards, playing 39 of 67 snaps
Jaylen Warren had more carries and more targets than Dowdle despite fewer snaps
Lots of people expected Dowdle to handle the majority of the backfield touches while Warren kept his role as the receiving back… Sunday didn't clearly reflect that outcome
Until one back clearly separates on volume, this profiles as a game-to-game guessing exercise. Hard to trust either Steeler as a confident start next week.
🔥 Stud: Jalen Coker (WR - CAR)
Forget the depth chart. On Sunday, Coker was Bryce Young's WR1.
Caught 8-of-9 targets for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns, besting Tetairoa McMillan in target share on the day
Coker was already the team’s locked-in WR2 after a vote of confidence from the coaching staff, and backed it with a fresh three-year, $35 million extension that signals the front office's confidence too
His per-play efficiency isn't a fluke either: 9.2 yards per target (19th in the NFL) last season
Carolina's passing game will likely still be a timeshare with McMillan, but Coker showed real flex appeal even in a game where the offense trailed most of the day.
📉 Dud: Ja’Marr Chase (WR - CIN)
The presumptive top overall fantasy wideout delivered the quietest possible day when his offense had a 33-point output.
Caught just 2-of-4 targets for 12 yards, seeing only 4 of Joe Burrow's 35 attempts as the Bucs' defense funneled the ball to the middle of the field
This is a stark outlier against his season-long profile from last year: 175 targets (1st in the NFL) and a 32.7% target share (3rd) in 2025
Chase and Burrow are too good and too familiar with each other for this to continue, so this one’s more of an opening disappointment than a real red flag.
Volume this light doesn't match a receiver who projects for a WR1 season. Expect a correction against a Texans defense that just got torched by Buffalo.
🔥 Stud: Mike Gesicki (TE - CIN)
With Chase nearly invisible, someone had to pick up the slack on a big day, and Gesicki was the guy.
Led the Bengals in catches, targets, and yards (5-of-7 for 78 yards and a touchdown), the only Cincinnati pass-catcher to find the end zone
His yardage total would have ranked as his second-highest game of all of 2025
He's sharing a target pool with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown…all high-volume weapons in their own right
A nice one-week spike, but this probably isn’t a reason to overreact. Treat this as a nice boost for Gesicki as a wavier target when things get tight during bye season.
📉 Dud: Harold Fannin Jr. (TE - CLE)
Kyle Pitts also could have gone in this spot after recording zero fantasy points, but a lot of that had to do with Cooper Rush starting for the Falcons. A near-invisible Week 1 for Fannin after so many expected him to continue to produce makes him the pick here.
Caught just 2-of-3 targets for 21 yards, not hauling in his first catch until late in the third quarter
Fannin is supposed to be the undisputed No. 1 tight end after David Njoku's departure, coming off a rookie season with 107 targets (5th among TEs) and a fantasy TE6 finish
One wrinkle worth tracking: Fannin’s late-2025 chemistry was built with QB Shedeur Sanders, but Sunday's offense ran through Deshaun Watson instead… something that could change as the year goes on.
Three targets in an offense that struggled to move the ball isn't a crisis given his target-share profile… treat this as a rough opener, not a role change, heading into a Tampa Bay matchup.
That’s the list. The best and worst fantasy performers at every position this weekend. Come back tomorrow for my Week 2 Waiver Targets.
-Joe
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