RBs by Category
Thinking about these backs correctly could be the key to securing a winning team on fantasy draft night.
🧨 The Breakout: Omarion Hampton (LAC)
Hampton was already playing like a fantasy stud in flashes as a rookie, and 2026 clears every obstacle that stood in his way.
Averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game (12th among all RBs) during his healthy stretches, despite missing time to a fractured left ankle and a later right ankle issue
Commanded a 69.7% opportunity share once he became the undisputed lead back, logging 28 red zone touches in just 9 games
New OC Mike McDaniel replaces Greg Roman with a more explosive scheme, and the offensive line gets healthy with tackles Slater and Alt plus new center Tyler Biadasz
With volume, health, scheme, and blocking all trending the right direction, Hampton is widely projected as a top-7 to top-10 fantasy RB1 and a lock for the top 10.
❌ Do Not Draft: TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
Henderson flashed real explosiveness as a rookie, but the numbers behind that production don't hold up to an RB2 price tag.
29.2% of his total rookie production came in just two games… the two games Rhamondre Stevenson was inactive
His half-PPR pace cratered from 21.2 PPG (Weeks 10–15) down to just 7.5 PPG in games where Stevenson was healthy
Stevenson beat him in every efficiency metric last season and remains under contract for 2026, and Henderson's role diminished further in the postseason, averaging just 2.4 YPC in the playoff run
The talent is there, but paying an RB2 price tag for what's still Stevenson's backfield is a bad value.
💰 Undervalued: Jordan Mason (MIN)
Mason quietly outproduced a bigger name last year, and Minnesota may be about to hand him the keys.
Beat Aaron Jones in nearly every efficiency metric, ranking in the Top-10 for explosive run rate, rushing success rate, and missed tackles forced per attempt.
With Jones waning at age 32, Mason's only real competition on the depth chart is a 6th-round rookie
Frank Smith is revamping Minnesota's zone-run scheme, and the addition of Kyler Murray should stabilize the offense and create better game scripts for a power runner like Mason
If Jones misses any time, Mason is squarely built to be the Vikings back you want.
Coming up: the back we think is priced way too high for what he's getting… and the dark-horse we'd take over him.
👶 Rookie Sleeper: Jonah Coleman (DEN)
Coleman is buried on Denver's depth chart today, but he's one injury away from a real workload.
Sean Payton specifically praised his pass protection, and Payton's own JK Dobbins comparisons carry weight coming from the head coach who'll be using him
Grades out as a true 3-down profile running behind ETR's top-ranked offensive line… a unit noted for its elite depth and talent across all five spots
JK Dobbins is the clear starter on a fresh 2-year deal, but Dobbins has missed significant time in multiple seasons and is already dealing with a soft-tissue injury flag
His rookie value is tied almost entirely to Dobbins' health, but Coleman could see real early-down work behind a top-tier offensive line the moment that door opens.
⚠️ Overvalued: Ashton Jeanty (LV)
Jeanty is going off the board like a locked-in RB1, but the matchup math tells a different story.
Projected to face the toughest RB schedule in the entire NFL in 2026 (32nd easiest)
New HC Klint Kubiak has historically preferred two-back rotations, so a true workhorse role isn't guaranteed even with an improved offense
His rookie efficiency was bottom of the league (4.1 yards per touch (52nd) and 0.72 fantasy points per opportunity (52nd))… and while an overhauled offensive line and new starting QB should help, that's a lot of projection baked into a Round 1 price
The talent and volume profile are undeniable, but going in Round 1 with the league's hardest schedule is too expensive unless he falls.
🐴 Dark Horse RB1: Chase Brown (CIN)
When Joe Burrow was healthy last season, Brown looked like one of the best backs in football — and now Burrow's back for a full 17 games.
Averaged 17.2 PPR points per game over the last two seasons with Burrow under center, and still finished as the overall RB7 in points per game (16.6) in 2025 despite a brutal start
Once Burrow (and Flacco) took over from Week 6 on, Brown ran for 5+ YPC and 71 yards per game… worlds apart from the 2.5 YPC he managed through 5 weeks with Jake Browning
Locked into a massive workload with 88 targets (4th among RBs) and 69 receptions (5th), entering a contract year with zero meaningful backfield competition added
With Burrow healthy for a full season and Brown's role fully secure, betting on last year's second half becoming this year's full season makes him a legitimate dark-horse RB1.
That's the breakdown. Six backs, six paths. Know which one you're drafting before your league does.
-Joe