Value QBs
If your draft plan is skill positions early and quarterback late, these are the five arms that make the strategy pay off. Two minutes, five arguments, zero reaches.
#5: Daniel Jones (IND)
Jones has quietly turned into one of the better value plays at the position, even coming off a season-ending injury suffered in Week 14 of last year.
Ranked 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.1) and 8th in QBR (63.7) in 2025
Was 12th in fantasy points per game (18.0) despite finishing as just the overall QB17 due to the injury and missed time
Schedule flips from the 6th-hardest for QBs in 2025 to the 8th-easiest projected in 2026
Health is the swing factor after the torn Achilles, but the tape says Jones is a legitimate QB2 with QB1 upside if his mobility holds up in camp.
#4: Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Two major knee surgeries and a lost season have dropped Mahomes into legitimate buy-low range. Let your league-mates pass on him at their own risk.
Led the NFL in Money Throws (23), according to PlayerProfiler’s metric, and ranked 6th in QBR (68.8) even in a "down" 2025
Finished as the overall QB11 and 2nd in fantasy points per game in just 14 games played
Eric Bieniemy returns as OC to rebuild an offense that ranked just 21st in points and 20th in total yards
Even in a rough year, the per-game production stayed elite. Sure, the risk is limited mobility, but that’s already baked into the ADP. Buying Mahomes now means buying a top-12 arm at a discount.
#3: Tyler Shough (NO)
Shough heads into 2026 as a confirmed full-time starter, and the supporting cast around him looks nothing like the one that limited him as a rookie.
Closed 2025 on a heater: 272, 308, and 333 passing yards across his final three starts
Elite efficiency vs. zone coverage (80.7% success rate) and a 78.9% intermediate passing success rate, per Reception Perception
Sneaky rushing floor, with 3 rushing TDs across 11 games
Saints added pieces, notably Travis Etienne Jr. to an offense that scored just 306 points (28th) last year… First rounder Jordyn Tyson is out for the first part of the year, but could also be a piece down the stretch
A full offseason as QB1 plus real weapon upgrades make 4,000 yards and 28+ touchdowns a realistic ceiling for 2026.
#2: Baker Mayfield (TB)
Mayfield's price dropped after the Bucs’ 2-7 finish, but the split season tells a more complicated story than the record suggests.
Finished as the fantasy QB12 in 2025 on 543 pass attempts (7th) and 3,693 passing yards (10th)
Led all quarterbacks in yards per carry (6.95) on 382 rushing yards… a surprisingly solid rushing pad for the fantasy stats
New OC Zac Robinson brings a pass-heavy, spread scheme after last year's offense stagnated under Josh Grizzard
Between a scheme upgrade and a walk-year contract with maximum motivation attached, Mayfield has a real path back toward his 2024 form.
#1: Kyler Murray (MIN)
Murray's move to Minnesota drops him into arguably the best offensive environment of his career.
Has finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in points per game every single healthy season of his career, including a 16.2 PPG floor in an injury-shortened 2025
Joins Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson under Kevin O'Connell
Benefits from the 7th-easiest projected QB schedule in 2026
A prove-it deal inside a top-tier offense makes Murray the clearest QB1-upside case in this entire group, as long as he stays healthy.
That's the list. Wait on the position, load up on skill players, and one of these five should still be sitting there when you circle back for your QB1.
-Joe