Regression Risks
Here are 5 big fantasy football names carrying real regression risk into this upcoming season
RB: R.J. Harvey (DEN)
Harvey's monster stretch as Denver's lead back masked a crowded backfield picture that's about to get even tighter.
Denver re-signed J.K. Dobbins to a two-year deal and added rookie Jonah Coleman, muddying a job that was wide open down the stretch last season.
In games where both Harvey and Dobbins played, Harvey averaged just 7.9 opportunities per game, compared to 17.9 opportunities per game when Dobbins was out. Dobbins out-carried him 145-47 on early downs and 20-6 in the red zone.
His underlying efficiency lagged even during his workhorse run, with just 3.6–3.7 yards per carry (well below the 4.3 league average), and his rookie production was propped up by seven touchdowns.
With Dobbins back healthy, Coleman now in the mix, and Harvey himself still working back from offseason labrum surgery, his path to matching last year's volume is far from guaranteed.
QB: Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Hurts stayed a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2025, but the pillars that got him there are shifting under a new coaching staff and a thinner receiving room.
His rushing production dipped to a career-low 421 yards as a full-time starter, chipping into the ground game that's long been his fantasy floor.
New OC Sean Mannion is installing a Shanahan/McVay-influenced scheme built around more play-action and under-center sets — a real departure from Philadelphia's recent offensive identity.
The Eagles traded top target A.J. Brown to New England on June 1, leaving DeVonta Smith and rookie Makai Lemon to help fill the void.
A new offensive system and a lighter receiving corps make last year's QB8 finish a tougher act to repeat in 2026… especially when some of the passing volume dipped at times already.
WR: Davante Adams (LAR)
Adams looked every bit the WR1 in 2025, but the touchdown numbers behind that finish carry real regression risk.
He scored a touchdown on 23% of his receptions last season: a rate that simply isn't sustainable year over year.
His 14 receiving touchdowns leaned heavily on Matthew Stafford's career-high 7.7% TD rate, a mark that's unlikely to repeat. He’s not throwing 46 touchdowns again.
Efficiency already showed cracks in 2025: a career-low 53% catch rate and just 1.96 yards per route run, ranking 24th among receivers.
At 33 years old and this touchdown-dependent, Adams' fantasy ceiling hinges on a scoring pace that history says won't hold up.
RB: Christian McCaffrey (SF)
McCaffrey was the overall fantasy RB1 in 2025, but he got there on a workload that's now drawing real scrutiny from his own coaching staff.
He led the NFL with 413 total touches at age 29… the single biggest injury and workload risk factor on his profile entering his age-30 season.
His rushing efficiency was already a concern last year, posting negative rushing EPA and ranking among the worst backs in yards over expected per attempt, with the receiving game propping up his fantasy value.
Kyle Shanahan has signaled a desire to reduce McCaffrey's load, and McCaffrey has missed double-digit games in three of his last six seasons.
A career-high workload, an aging profile, and a coaching staff eyeing a lighter role all make last year's RB1 finish a tall order to repeat.
TE: Trey McBride (ARI)
McBride authored a record-breaking, historic season at tight end, but a full coaching overhaul and a more run-focused roster build could pump the brakes on his target monopoly.
Arizona brought in a completely new coaching staff and used a third-overall pick on RB Jeremiyah Love while also signing Tyler Allgeier: a run-heavy direction that could cut into overall passing volume.
His monster second half came almost entirely with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback (97 catches, 964 yards, 10 TDs in 12 starts), and the Cardinals used a third-round pick on QB Carson Beck as an eventual long-term answer.
He set the NFL single-season record for TE receptions (126) and out-scored the next-closest tight end by more than 100 fantasy points… a level of target dominance that's difficult to sustain even in a favorable scheme.
The scheme fit under new OC Nathaniel Hackett looks promising, but a more balanced offensive approach and long-term QB uncertainty put McBride's record-setting volume at real risk.
So that’s the list. These players are very unlikely to repeat their fantasy football finishes from a year ago… work that into your draft plan.
-Joe